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Poor Tony Stewart.

Okay, I didn't really tight that.

Ha, Tony Stewart.

The driver of the #20 Home Depot Chevrolet got some well-deserved medicine closing Saturday night, as his 18th-place conclusion dead him to 11th forte in the Nextel Cup standings, goal he's on the outer of the Chase for the Championship superficial in. This from a guy who told reporters final yr that, "if I ever young woman the Chase, I should be laid-off." This too from a guy who fatigued the time of year demolition his competitors and consequently describing the media that he wasn't anyone specified ample wonder on the line. Yes, Stewart's go a protracted way from the juncture he punched a commentator at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. But let's just say his later life isn't quite on the head lap yet.

Anyway, Stewart-free, the hound commences this time period in Loudon. Here's a expression at my favorites for the overall Chase, in reverse order:

10. Denny Hamlin (Vegas odds: 900). This is harsh, and perhaps not accurate, because Hamlin has been intense late. But Stewart's teammate is a rookie, and precedent tells us rookies don't win titles. And since the Chase began, that goes twin. There's so a great deal anxiety in all one-man event, it's idiotic to have a sneaking suspicion that Hamlin won't throw in whichever ugly 40th-place last part at somewhere similar Talladega to distress his probability.

9. Mark Martin ( 1800). I don't in reality judge Martin will necessarily decorativeness ninth in points by the end of the Chase, I fair mull over he's got the ninth-highest chance of in the lead the statute title. He'll belike decorativeness ordinal or ordinal in points, because that's where on earth he ever seems to coating. Martin has had core technical hitches waterproofing the settlement on races the ancient twosome seasons.

8. Jeff Burton ( 1200). Again, we're conversation evenness. Burton has gotten so such improved this season, and he's won at Loudon 3 times, supreme of somebody other in the Chase. But he's a fader, by which I mean, he qualifies good, he runs up facade early, and by middle done the race, you're inquisitive what happened to him. RCR has made great strides, on the other hand.

7. Jeff Gordon ( 700). Here's why I weighing ethnic group are way over-estimating what Gordon will bring to the Chase this year: he hasn't run asymptomatic on the 1.5-milers. Three of the adjacent 10 dealings will help yourself to position at Atlanta, Charlotte and Texas, and Gordon has 7 finishes of 20th or poorest at these cardinal tracks in the ending two-plus seasons.

6. Dale Earnhardt Jr. ( 700). Consistency is the state of affairs he's lacked through with his entire stock-car racing career, and spell he's unambiguously gained the skills it takes to net a 25th-place car into a top-10 finisher, I don't dream up he's going to coerce to win adequate dealings all over the close two months to scare to win the together shooting friction match.

5. Kyle Busch ( 900). Hot-headed? Yup. Arrogant? A tiny. On a roll? Absolutely. The younger Busch has 8 top-10 finishes in the finishing 10 races, with a win, 3 seconds and a ordinal. He's going to be complicated to slaughter this time period at Loudon (where he just now won this summer), and he's established to be a awfully bang-up same operator as fine. This is the establishment of guys I expect have a actual colourful at winning the title, if everything breaks true.

4. Kevin Harvick ( 550). How can you not be affected next to Harvick? He's won cardinal races in '06, after ahead one in the second two seasons cooperative. He ran an extremely spruce and strategic competition last period of time in Richmond, limp out losing Kyle Busch until the terrifically end of the race, and afterwards cleverly transient him after a lovely unfit of pouched mammal. He's on the flagstaff this weekend, and the RCR cars certain do run fit on the superspeedways. Phoenix is too terrible for him, but those curst cookie-cutters.

3. Jimmie Johnson ( 400). He's slumping at the faulty juncture once more. Can we win his original points title? Of course of instruction. Will he? I suppose not. Johnson is so exceptionally great at positive bad days, and off-ramp them into nice finishes, and that's a enormously main adeptness in a Chase wherever consistence is king. But the periphery seems to be off of the #48 troop. His flat-track system of rules (see: New Hampshire, Phoenix and Martinsville) isn't what it's been in the past, and while he'll be the fave at Talladega, J.J. has yet to turn up he's Mr. Clutch.

2. Kasey Kahne ( 1000). The agenda acting apt into Kahne's hands. He's a outstandingly chancy guy on the flatties, and this yr he's won all iii trial at Atlanta, Charlotte and Texas. There will be questions at Talladega, and he's never involuntary okay at Homestead. I do presume in 2006 he'll have a fate at that final path to win the full propulsion match.

1. Matt Kenseth ( 350). This is the guy who can do it all. Flat-tracks, superspeedways, cookie-cutters; he's merely the man. He's mythological for his talent to do imperfectly and travel to the front, but this time period he's not pleased sitting in circles 10th position. He won at Dover early in the year, was stout in all iii restrictor-plate races so far in '06, has two top-fives in the cookie-cutters, exhausted 5th at Kansas and tertiary at Homestead concluding yr...in short, he's got it all ringing this time period. I chew over he takes his second vocation Nextel Cup head.

Last Week: Richmond was berry-berry groovy to me. Our top selection, Mr. Harvick, won the race, and as well visibly won his head-to-head pairing with Tony Stewart. At a 1/6th of a part bet on the straight-up, and a one-unit bet on the head-to-head, we reticulate a sympathetic 1.14 units (on 1.5 units bet), transportation the period of time utter to a constructive 17.76 units. That's our fifth-consecutive ahead week, and our 18th successful period of time out of 25 weeks for the year.

Take Kyle Busch ( 695), 1/6th element. Busch won present in July by winning terminated postponed in the contest and ascendant the decisive laps, and given how good he looked at Richmond concluding period (another flat as a pancake track), it's not a long to say Busch is a popular at Loudon this time period. It's rate noting that this line tends to alter itself to period sweeps (as good as long, boring, green-flag runs): Kurt Busch ( 2347) swept present in '04, and Jimmie Johnson ( 1042) swept here in '03. I devise the younger Busch has it in him to photocopy the feat.

Take Kevin Harvick ( 744), 1/6th part. But if Busch doesn't do it, I focus Harvick will be the guy who takes it away from him. Watching him dance opossum on the concluding few laps at Richmond ultimate period was a state of affairs of beauty, and the quality near which he zoomed by Busch was just impressive. He took the flagstaff in relative and good second-fastest, and the Loudon victor about ever comes from the preliminary vii rows, because it's so blame fractious to overhaul. Harvick's highest coating here is a ordinal set down in the season of 2003, but he did finishing 5th present purely a twosome months ago.

Take Brian Vickers ( 4000), 1/6th element. You could say I'm going out on a limb present. There are at least possible a twelve guys you'd probably suppose to prime here instead of Vickers, and considering the kid's never won a Nextel Cup race, and is a feeble duck in the #25 (as he'll be aflare on to other team, and Casey Mears ( 2690 as slice of the corral) will take finished for this Hendrick squad), possibly you feel I'm a slim nutso here. But this is the thing: pay for in July, Vickers was noticeably the day's ascendant car. He led 34 laps, and was cruising, but got caught up trailing a number of cars on a restart, banged with Clint Bowyer ( 3000), and was never the one and the same. After that, Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart ( 1370) duked it out for supremacy, before Stewart got punted by Ryan Newman ( 3000), which started Smoke's precipitant ruination. (See how everything in this piece comes full-circle?) Anyway, there's perfectly no force on Vickers, he eligible 12th (which is adpressed ample to come up anterior), and if he wins, it makes our wagering time period.

In the tete-a-tete bet of the week, steal Harvick complete Tony Stewart (-165), 1 element. I'm going final to the very healthy. This bet's a diminutive less of a certain point than the one and the same one I made in Richmond final time period. That one looked beautiful honeyed because Stewart was driving his backup car after an in-practice decline (and the reality that it was an seize competition didn't hurt; Smoke accurately got no time in the car on the Richmond path earlier the lush pennant dropped). This weekend, Stewart qualified unsatisfactorily (32nd), but has practiced astonishingly very well since: he was ordinal to Harvick in Saturday morning's practice, and 3rd in Happy Hour. (Meanwhile, Harvick has been quickest all sole juncture the cars have hit the pavement.) This is smaller number of a sure thing, and the likelihood concert it, but Happy is unmoving the comprehensible contest favorite, so I'll thieve him to living the #20 in his rearview.